tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post1615648287590999128..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: Private Debt 2012 (3): When does government debt grow?The Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-49107601260883018842012-01-20T00:20:33.824-05:002012-01-20T00:20:33.824-05:00FRED's
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/g...FRED's<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4r3<br /><br />4r3 (red) shows Gross Federal debt approaching 15K billion; this is the debt-clock number. 4r3 (blue) shows the credit-market component of that, at around 10K billion. The difference is owed to Federal agencies, not to credit markets. The borrowing from Social Security and like that. As I understand. (See Gene Hayward's comments <a href="http://newarthurianeconomics.blogspot.com/2011/04/three-graphs.html?showComment=1303653358620#c1901395661227304390" rel="nofollow">here</a> and <a href="http://newarthurianeconomics.blogspot.com/2011/04/three-graphs.html?showComment=1303669137913#c4377870586099842847" rel="nofollow">here</a>.)<br /><br />But as you show in<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4qI<br /><br />they do "move in near-perfect lock-step." My claim of "a strong, reliable relation" is valid for either dataset. Interestingly, 4qI shows generally bigger spikes at the recessions for Gross Federal than for Credit Market debt.<br /><br />How does FRED do that, anyway? ...identify their graphs with just a THREE character code!The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-19021103802976087732012-01-19T18:17:46.668-05:002012-01-19T18:17:46.668-05:00I should look at the Y axis label more carefully.
...I should look at the Y axis label more carefully.<br /><br />I couldn't find a better way to get these two on the same scale than to divide by 1000.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4r3<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-44539245822378946562012-01-19T11:35:05.214-05:002012-01-19T11:35:05.214-05:00Are you sure you have the most relevant FRED serie...Are you sure you have the most relevant FRED series?<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4qH<br /><br />They do move in near-perfect lock-step.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4qI<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-27704599324981541932012-01-19T08:47:50.738-05:002012-01-19T08:47:50.738-05:00You may be chagrined to find out that I am in tota...You may be chagrined to find out that I am in total agreement.<br /><br />Bravo!<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-76401820425830930172012-01-19T07:11:55.764-05:002012-01-19T07:11:55.764-05:00"If you want to minimize the growth of Federa..."If you want to minimize the growth of Federal debt, you must minimize the occurrence, duration, and severity of recession, and you must restore health and vigor to the U.S. economy."<br /><br />There are those who say we must minimize the growth of Federal debt <i>in order to</i> restore health and vigor to the U.S. economy.<br /><br />That view overlooks the fact that US policy is (still today) counter-cyclical, so that government spending rises and tax receipts fall when economic growth slows.<br /><br />Counter-cyclical policy was created on purpose, as a way to fight recessions. To turn this around and say that the policy is the cause of slow growth is to stand logic on its head.The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.com