tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post2799663704846853438..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: Trump's 4% growth targetThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-83367204237393721422018-06-29T03:22:47.512-04:002018-06-29T03:22:47.512-04:00From St. Louis Fed's Bullard Discusses R-Star:...From <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2018/02/26/bullard-natural-real-rate-interest" rel="nofollow">St. Louis Fed's Bullard Discusses R-Star: The Natural Real Rate of Interest</a>: <br />"<b>Regarding the regimes for U.S. labor force growth, he [Bullard] noted that since the financial crisis, the growth rate has been 0.46 percent. This compares with a higher growth rate of 1.33 percent before the financial crisis.</b>"<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-46368578634908994712018-05-24T05:48:11.631-04:002018-05-24T05:48:11.631-04:00John Taylor, September 12, 2015:
"Andy Atkeso...<a href="https://economicsone.com/2015/09/12/can-we-restart-this-recovery-all-over-again/" rel="nofollow">John Taylor, September 12, 2015</a>:<br />"<b>Andy Atkeson, Lee Ohanian and Bill Simon recently published a nicely-reasoned <a href="http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-viewpoint/090315-769633-four-percent-economic-growth-is-well-within-our-reach.htm" rel="nofollow">article</a> about why the US economy can achieve 4% growth.</b>"<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-8559394825392857642018-02-06T13:54:33.230-05:002018-02-06T13:54:33.230-05:00Menzie points out that reaching Trump's growth...<br /><i>Menzie points out that reaching Trump's growth target will require a large increase in the size of the labor force or in labor productivity, or both.</i><br /><br /><a href="http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/taking-issue-with-paul-krugman-we-re-still-not-at-full-employment" rel="nofollow">Dean Baker</a>: "While the 4.1 percent unemployment rate is low by the standards of the last 45 years, it is worth noting that other major economies (e.g. Japan and Germany) now have far lower unemployment rates than almost any economist thought plausible just four or five years ago. <b>I don't see any reason to believe that the US unemployment rate can't fall to 3.5 percent, and possibly even lower, without kicking off an inflationary spiral</b>."<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-46339500444168522592017-11-07T02:10:25.197-05:002017-11-07T02:10:25.197-05:00At CNBC: "Trump's hope for 3% growth no l...<br />At <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/trumps-hope-for-3-percent-growth-no-longer-looks-so-far-fetched.html" rel="nofollow">CNBC</a>: "Trump's hope for 3% growth no longer looks so far-fetched"<br /><br />And of course they attribute any improvement to President Trump, not to the slow debt growth of the past ten years making faster debt growth now a possibility again.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-62625038567563521732017-08-13T06:02:00.165-04:002017-08-13T06:02:00.165-04:00Josh Lehner, at the Oregon Office of Economic Anal...<br />Josh Lehner, at the <i>Oregon Office of Economic Analysis</i>, asks: <a href="https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2017/08/09/labor-supply-how-much-more/" rel="nofollow">Labor Supply, How Much More?</a> Lehner writes:<br /><br />"If Oregon is to see stronger labor force growth, or labor supply, it will have to come from some combination of faster population growth and/or higher labor force participation rates among Oregonians. The question is: will we get it? ...<br />Our baseline outlook says the slower job growth we’ve seen in the past year is here to stay and much of the participation gains have played out... [H]owever there is upside risk here too. Job growth, labor force participation, and population growth can all come in better than we expect..."<br /><br />And from his summary:<br /><br />"While our office expects the slower job growth to continue, it does not mean the numbers cannot come in better than we expect. Some slack remains. Should a stronger economy pull more workers back into the labor force it would be great news."<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.com