tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post5844434574414572888..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: JzB, meet bJZThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-7990133869040251862012-10-15T06:30:47.650-04:002012-10-15T06:30:47.650-04:00And here I'm thinking that debt is the total o...And here I'm thinking that debt is the total of all deficits over time. When it comes to government debt, I'd say all the borrowing to spend beyond receipts (deficit spending), would equal the total accumulated debt. nanutehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04526158764171117978noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-13095947135421591782012-10-15T06:10:43.043-04:002012-10-15T06:10:43.043-04:00Jazz --
"Deficit is accumulated total debt&qu...Jazz --<br />"Deficit is accumulated total debt"<br /><br />Well I never heard THAT before. Do you have a link to that definition?<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-46627033501550800552012-10-13T22:51:17.628-04:002012-10-13T22:51:17.628-04:00Jerry -
You don't have the math quite right. ...Jerry -<br /><br />You don't have the math quite right. Yes we are looking at rates of change - growth in debt, growth in GDP; but no, that is not any kind of deficit. Deficit is accumulated total debt - closer to an integral than a derivative.<br /><br />Normalizing is worthy of consideration. Haven't gotten there in my analysis yet.<br /><br />I see Keen looks at the derivative of debt growth, which seems quite abstract to me.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-38426252749185868112012-10-13T08:20:33.064-04:002012-10-13T08:20:33.064-04:00Oh, I like that "normalized debt" idea. ...Oh, I like that "normalized debt" idea. (I got in trouble with normalizing last time I tried it, though. Jazz got on my case. Correctly, I think.)<br /><br />I think that most people associate the word "deficit" with the <i>Federal</i> deficit, rather than any increase in debt. So to avoid confusion I often avoid the word. Good point, though.<br /><br />Well, I think I'll go normalize something.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-81614542066014402132012-10-13T07:09:11.723-04:002012-10-13T07:09:11.723-04:00One thing that jumps out at me is - i think you gu...One thing that jumps out at me is - i think you guys're looking at rates-of-change (is the "YoY" year-on-year change?). So, really, you are seeing correlation between deficit and growth. Not debt and growth. But you could also look at debt (normalized somehow - tcmdo/gdp?) versus gdp growth (or something), right?Jerrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-29615713913774694602012-10-12T13:58:19.168-04:002012-10-12T13:58:19.168-04:00Dang! I didn't know you could do a scatter pl...Dang! I didn't know you could do a scatter plot at FRED.<br /><br />Less scatter in annual data isn't a surprise, since it will automatically smooth the 4 qtrs.<br /><br />"Or maybe a given dollop of new debt needs more than three months for its effect to show up in growth." <br /><br />In my next yet-to-be written post, I'll look at time lags in YoY growth in GDP vs TCMDO, and TCMDO vs GDP (Y-axis factor, by tradition the dependent variable listed first.)<br /><br />As it turns out, the slope and R^2 responses of GDP to TCMDO are highest in the current Q, and fall off rapidly in succeeding Qs.<br /><br />But for TCMDO as a function of GDP, the slope and R^2 actually increase slightly for 2 Q's, then are only slightly below current Q after a full year.<br /><br />Does this suggest that YoY TCMDO is a function of GDP, rather than the other way around?<br /><br />I can easily believe in a bivariant feedback loop, but this still surprises me.<br /><br />Very little in the tank today, and I don't feel much like writing, so it might be a few days before the post goes up.<br /><br />JzB Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com