tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post5867377934869389924..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: A PredictionThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-18410558564203603372012-06-03T03:30:52.066-04:002012-06-03T03:30:52.066-04:00"Tell me again what the purpose of normalizat..."Tell me again what the purpose of normalization was."<br /><br /><i>To make the two lines comparable</i>, as Milton Friedman would say. (And I objected like crazy to that.)The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-43052099215106548482012-06-02T21:30:19.453-04:002012-06-02T21:30:19.453-04:00I like what you're doing here, but will have t...I like what you're doing here, but will have to reread, and give it more thought.<br /><br />To what extent is the relative magnitudes of your curves an artifact of normalization?<br /><br />You hint that it is in the 50's.<br /><br />Your graph suggests about a 3:1 inflation/GDP ratio for several years. The FRED graph suggests about 1.5.<br /><br />Tell me again what the purpose of normalization was.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-28850601638305387492012-05-31T17:50:55.824-04:002012-05-31T17:50:55.824-04:00Hi Woj. Nice, I didn't think of that.
But pon...Hi Woj. Nice, I didn't think of that.<br /><br />But ponder me this... Does it seem to be true, that over the last 30 years prices have gone up three times as much as 'real' output?<br /><br />That's what the numbers tell me. But it is a hard thing to believe, without some practical examples.<br /><br />Okay. I bought a Sentra...<br /><br />FOUND IT! <a href="http://newarthurianeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/06/between-three-and-four-percent.html" rel="nofollow">This post</a> shows me figuring long-term (1983-2007) inflation at 3.715% annual, compounded.<br /><br />Pretty close to what you got.<br /><br />I wonder how many more cars are sold each year in the US...<br /><br />Okay, FRED has ALTSALES, showing "Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks" here:<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=7C1<br /><br />The first value was about 12.5 million (for 1975). I divided the whole series by 12.5 and now the graph shows 1.0 vehicles for 1975, and less than 1.4 for 2007. Again, pretty close to what you got.<br /><br />I gain confidence...The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-39569884658636332592012-05-31T17:29:02.041-04:002012-05-31T17:29:02.041-04:00Obviously there are many caveats, but if we take y...Obviously there are many caveats, but if we take your ratio and the recommended 5% NGDP growth, the result is consistent inflation of 3.75% and real GDP growth of 1.25%. Sounds like a terrible trade off for nominal stability.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00720722626969395929noreply@blogger.com