tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post6660527040091253862..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: Three Decades (and an Update)The Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-74358181068604493412012-10-09T12:05:16.833-04:002012-10-09T12:05:16.833-04:00Art -
By testable hypothesis I mean check to see ...Art -<br /><br />By testable hypothesis I mean check to see how the ideas hold up against historical data. I'm definitely willing to participate.<br /><br />I started looking at the relationship between debt and growth. (What I see as the lower level hypothesis.) It is definitely there, and definitely positive. The slope and R^2 are both variable over time, which fits your theory, I think. Burning question for me is - which is the dependent variable. I'll get a post up today or tomorrow.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-35101261863553543232012-10-08T18:42:29.232-04:002012-10-08T18:42:29.232-04:00Thanks Jazz.
I DEFINITELY accept the two corollar...Thanks Jazz.<br /><br />I DEFINITELY accept the two corollaries you enumerate. <br /><br />I think you understand "testable hypotheses" better than I do. I could use some help with that, if you're willing.<br /><br />For me, "too much" debt is defined by the response of the economy. And I'm sure it is related to long cycles.<br /><br />I updated the post, replaced GDPC1 with nominal GDP on a second graph. Good idea. <br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-12199377611096729532012-10-08T16:24:03.838-04:002012-10-08T16:24:03.838-04:00GDPC1 is in constant 2005 dollars. I think you sh...GDPC1 is in constant 2005 dollars. I think you should use the GDP series.<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-40934687677978816002012-10-08T13:15:39.869-04:002012-10-08T13:15:39.869-04:00Your observations suggest a hypothesis: "Outp...Your observations suggest a hypothesis: "Output growth slowed when debt became excessive."<br /><br />This, in turn, suggests a couple of couple of corollaries:<br />1) There is a non-excessive amount of debt. Let's call it "just right."<br />2) Below the "just right" amount, there might also be "not enough."<br /><br />Actually, there is a lower level hypothesis, to which yours is corrolary: That there is a functional relationship between debt and growth, in which growth is the dependent variable.<br /><br />This is a directly testable hypothesis.<br /><br />Yours requires some elaboration to be testable. "Too much" needs to be quantized, probably relative to some measure of ability to pay: personal wealth or income, or GDP.<br /><br />You may well be onto something here. What is your next step?<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzB <br />Jazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com