tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post7391168462210913238..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: The trendline shows the shifting of the Phillips curveThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-75911366349205436492016-05-02T19:24:46.946-04:002016-05-02T19:24:46.946-04:00Good stuff, BurkeyAcademy! Too many people think t...Good stuff, BurkeyAcademy! Too many people think the Phillips scatter is an ink blot. By looking at chronological development of the scatter, you're seeing how things changed over time. By making chronological groupings, George Lesica did the same. So much more interesting than an ink blot!<br /><br />Hey, nice site you've got there.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-59464271381798683762016-05-02T17:38:42.962-04:002016-05-02T17:38:42.962-04:00Oilfield, seems to me YOU are the one trying to &q...Oilfield, seems to me YOU are the one trying to "explain" the "Feedback effects" and all the rest. Me and Burkey are just looking at the graph and trying to distinguish one bunch of dots from another.<br /><br />You seem to want to explain the graph while at the same time ignoring rather than seeing what it shows.<br /><br />Don't let "curve shifting" make you nervous.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch02.htm" rel="nofollow">They do not seem to have realised that, unless the supply of labour is a function of real wages alone, their supply curve for labour will shift bodily with every movement of prices.</a><br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-85661051603982378482016-05-02T16:51:18.623-04:002016-05-02T16:51:18.623-04:00Burkey Academy and Art
Seems that you are trying ...Burkey Academy and Art<br /><br />Seems that you are trying to explain the various patterns of feedback effects and disequilibrium dynamics (expectations) with a traditional linear Phillips Curve. <br /> <br />Instead it may be much easier to say the model economy is inherently cyclical, and there is no equilibrium ‘trade-off’ between inflation and unemployment. A nonlinear ‘Phillips Curve’ perspective.<br /><br />That is what I see in the patterns and colors. No need to talk about curve shifting. <br />Oilfield Trashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151172995826850192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-14177091754518709052016-05-02T15:31:40.251-04:002016-05-02T15:31:40.251-04:00Here is a YouTube video I made some time ago using...Here is a YouTube video I made some time ago using quarterly data and an animated graph in R, so you can see the evolution of various patterns. I provide a link so that you can download the code and data in the Description section of the video.<br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM0SYtDGv3w <br /><br />BurkeyAcademyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06959969088314437824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-30304127021328261832016-05-02T14:45:44.018-04:002016-05-02T14:45:44.018-04:00Art
"What Friedman said was that the curve c...Art<br /><br />"What Friedman said was that the curve could shift to a different location, and we could end up with high inflation and high unemployment. High and high instead of high and low, he said. <br /><br /> He was right about that. When it happens, the scatterplot dots get more scattered on the graph. But if you have all the dots the same color, it doesn't look like different curves in different locations. It looks like there is no Phillips curve. But you can't really tell, because all the dots are the same color."<br /><br />I do not get it. It either is a curve or not. Curve shifting?? <br /><br />Just to put all my cards on the table, I do not agree with Solow and Samuelson interpretation of this alleged relationship between the level of unemployment and the rate of inflation.<br /><br />In particular, Phillips extended his model to consider the impact of expectations upon prices. <br /><br />Given how much his work has been falsely denigrated by neoclassical economists for ignoring the role of expectations in economics, this aspect of his model deserves attention prior to considering the Phillips Curve itself.<br /><br />Below is Keens Take on the Phillips Curve.<br /><br />Phillips didn’t merely talk about expectations: he extended his model to incorporate them. As part of this project, Phillips also hypothesized that there was a nonlinear relationship between ‘the level of production and the rate of change of factor prices [labor and capital]. The role of this relationship in his dynamic model was to limit the rate at which prices would fall when unemployment was high, in line with ‘the greater rigidity of factor prices in the downward than in the upward direction’. In a dynamic model itself, this does not lead to a stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment – which is the way his empirically derived curve was subsequently interpreted – but rather limits the volatility of the cycles that occur compared to what a linear relationship would yield.<br /><br />(Maybe this is what your are seeing in the colors)<br /><br />Oilfield Trashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151172995826850192noreply@blogger.com