tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post8015206048463410625..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: A Barometer of GrowthThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-49974472562472406542013-08-30T18:14:54.255-04:002013-08-30T18:14:54.255-04:00THAT is one GREAT graph. I'll have to look at ...THAT is one GREAT graph. I'll have to look at it for a week or more before I see it, probably.<br /><br />I'll get back to you on the importance-of-housing thing... if I can find the reference.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-86509334442502408272013-08-30T17:47:52.822-04:002013-08-30T17:47:52.822-04:00But don't they say housing is the main thing t... <i>But don't they say housing is the main thing that boosts the economy? </i><br /><br />No. Consumer spending is about 70% of GDP.<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-20448746065776706632013-08-30T17:46:40.200-04:002013-08-30T17:46:40.200-04:00Hmmmmm -
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/gra...Hmmmmm -<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lWP<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-14354835235487648592013-08-28T18:25:48.406-04:002013-08-28T18:25:48.406-04:00Interesting graph, Jazz. But don't they say ho...Interesting graph, Jazz. But don't they say housing is the main thing that boosts the economy? At first glance...<br /><br />At second glance, the "choppyness" looks to be the boost they are talking about.<br /><br />Waning, waning, waning. No remarkable change around 1980 on that graph. huh.<br /><br />Oh, but look at percent change in private <b>nonresidential</b> fixed investment. There seems to be a "great moderation" there:<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lSN" rel="nofollow">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lSN</a><br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-78313542415090442132013-08-28T15:42:37.600-04:002013-08-28T15:42:37.600-04:00Despite the choppiness, PRFI/FPI was steadily decl...Despite the choppiness, PRFI/FPI was steadily declining until the housing bubble.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lSp<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-77023957215532108382013-08-28T15:38:41.890-04:002013-08-28T15:38:41.890-04:00Art -
Yeah, that ought to do it.
Cheers!
JzBArt -<br /><br />Yeah, that ought to do it.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-54592868784630490852013-08-27T17:49:49.913-04:002013-08-27T17:49:49.913-04:00Jazz, maybe Private Residential Fixed Investment (...Jazz, maybe <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PRFI" rel="nofollow">Private Residential Fixed Investment (PRFI)</a> ?<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-52831412956055795272013-08-27T12:40:04.478-04:002013-08-27T12:40:04.478-04:00Is there a way to back housing investment out of F...Is there a way to back housing investment out of FPI?<br /><br />Just looking at the industrial part might be valuable.<br /><br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-4220638057546014302013-08-27T12:38:21.046-04:002013-08-27T12:38:21.046-04:00jim -
Maybe a way to get at it is to do a scatter...jim -<br /><br />Maybe a way to get at it is to do a scattergraph FPI and GDP for different time lags from 0 to a few quarters.<br /><br />I redid the graph as quarterly rather than semi-annual.<br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lQ5<br /><br />it's busy as hell, but i think you need a finer cut to sort out predictive value.<br /><br />Then again, it might just be a mash-up.<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-87129312566396219882013-08-27T12:01:05.067-04:002013-08-27T12:01:05.067-04:00"Thus, movements in PFI serve as a barometer ..."Thus, movements in PFI serve as a barometer of confidence in, and support for, future economic growth."<br /><br />If I'm deciphering that quote correctly it implies that the changes in FPI are predictive of where the economy is going in the future. <br /><br />Looking back at the last 60 years I don't see why anyone would think that is true. <br /><br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=lQ2<br /><br />It looks to me like movements in FPI are not any better indications of future growth (or lack of growth) than are movements in GDP itself. Maybe the data for FPI can be had earlier. <br />jimnoreply@blogger.com