tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post9198196990506932263..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: No SplashyThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-65625432069935615232023-06-26T09:42:14.823-04:002023-06-26T09:42:14.823-04:00The FRED Blog post of 22 June 2023 offers "As...The FRED Blog post of 22 June 2023 offers "Assessing recession probabilities"<br />https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/06/assessing-recession-probabilities/<br />Looks interesting. The data is based on "<a href="https://jeremypiger.com/recession_probs_faq/" rel="nofollow">four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.</a>"<br /><br />Curse my luck, the data begins in June 1967. There is little or no disturbance visible on the FRED graph at the start, from the so-called "near-recession" or "mini-recession" of that time frame. Milton Friedman had predicted recession in <a href="https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/213994/full" rel="nofollow">Newsweek</a> in October, 1966.<br /><br />Too bad the dataset didn't start a few years earlier.The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-80361346736532976542021-09-11T05:08:55.614-04:002021-09-11T05:08:55.614-04:00RE: 1966 as the end of the Golden Age ...
see Jazz...RE: 1966 as the end of the Golden Age ...<br />see <a href="https://newarthurianeconomics.blogspot.com/2011/08/iffy-piffy-3-clonals-chart-and-what.html?showComment=1314400064980#c3243692182772554812" rel="nofollow">Jazzbumpa's comment of 26 August 2011, 7:07pm</a>:<br /><br />"The golden age - which we see ending around 1966..."<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-7465203620374898272012-07-24T07:57:21.526-04:002012-07-24T07:57:21.526-04:00Art, 1965 was the last year of below 2% inflation....Art, 1965 was the last year of below 2% inflation. For the next 15 years the "sky was the limit".<br />I agree that growth is good. But it can portend bad omens!<br />And the "Camelot growth" was just that:<br />http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/03/09/is-lming-the-way-to-the-great-inflation/João Marcushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13658264244033012660noreply@blogger.com