Sunday, May 1, 2016

Two Views of the Phillips Curve

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On the one hand we have David Andolfatto , who thinks this PowerPoint presentation makes a great statement. I think it entirely misses the...
Saturday, April 30, 2016

Looking for weakness

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Trump? Cruz? Clinton? Sanders? Whose boom will it be? No one will credit Obama, surely. I marked up a graph of commercial loans: Grap...
Friday, April 29, 2016

Disorganized Writer Offers Follow-Up to 'Scatterplot Trends' Story

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On the 27th I took a scatterplot -- the private-debt-to-public-debt (P2P) ratio versus inflation-adjusted GDP growth -- and tweaked the he...
Thursday, April 28, 2016

Hamilton's find and the Phillips Curve

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James Hamilton recently looked at Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts (PDF, 55 pages). According to Hamilton, Sou...
1 comment:
Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Scatterplot Trends

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"Learn to program" -- Bill Gates I had some trouble determining the trends shown by scatterplots. Looked at that on 21 April ...
Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Fiddlin

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Ran across this graph from December of 2013 : Graph #1: PGDP from 2005 (blue) and 2013 (red) The graph shows the growth rates for two ...
Monday, April 25, 2016

April Update: We are at the bottom ...

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From mine of 3 March 2016: We are at the bottom now, ready to go up. Graph #4: DPD with Trend out to 2030 We're right there right...
7 comments:
Sunday, April 24, 2016

Population Growth as a Recession Indicator

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Looking at "bottoms" in population growth: decrease, then bottom, then increase.   •  A bottom in 1953Q2 falls just before the...
1 comment:
Saturday, April 23, 2016

Quarterly: Private Debt relative to Public Debt

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At FRED, when you get the Real GDP series GDPC1 it defaults to Quarterly frequency. When you get the series TCMDO ("all sectors...
3 comments: