tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post1302003590091340879..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: Skipping a stone across recent yearsThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-7449861820471437052018-01-14T05:52:42.540-05:002018-01-14T05:52:42.540-05:00Menzie Chinn's graph (Splash #6 above) is from...<br />Menzie Chinn's graph (Splash #6 above) is from February 2016, as is his suggestion that the old (high) trend line is too high.<br /><br />Just one year earlier (in <a href="http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/02/estimated-potential-gdp-what-would-milton-friedman-say" rel="nofollow">February 2015</a>) he had said:<br /><br />"The CBO has revised downward the estimate of potential GDP, implying a relatively small output gap. I wonder about the downward revision..."<br /><br />"The output gap using the estimated potential from the CBO is about -1.9% (in log terms); using the estimated potential from last year’s Outlook would’ve implied a -3.5% gap."<br /><br />[In other words, <b>the CBO revision cut the gap in half</b>. No wonder Menzie was "wondering" about it.]<br /><br />"Milton Friedman’s accelerationist hypothesis, as described in AER (1968), would suggest that the gap is <i>widening</i>, not shrinking."<br /><br />"The bottom line: The output gap can credibly be interpreted as still substantial; and ... perhaps the gap is not closing as fast as typically thought."<br /><br />It is interesting to watch his view evolve.<br /><br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-70191283164636357352017-07-09T04:28:47.962-04:002017-07-09T04:28:47.962-04:00Worse than useless, perhaps: Used by storytellers ...Worse than useless, perhaps: Used by storytellers to give their words power.<br /><br />Thanks Marcus. Good link.<br />Oh -- That's your site -- Nice!<br /><br />You noticed the "wide acceptance of the new trend" about three years before I did.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-52879241740576438332017-07-07T08:22:39.658-04:002017-07-07T08:22:39.658-04:00Going up or coming dow, it is "potential GDP&...Going up or coming dow, it is "potential GDP" that converges to actual GDP. The concept is useless!<br />http://ngdp-advisers.com/2017/05/20/uselessness-concept-potential-output/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com