tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post2454477139142354818..comments2024-03-12T22:19:32.339-04:00Comments on The New Arthurian Economics: It's not a metaphorThe Arthurianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-6577387964531433782016-12-14T16:20:02.696-05:002016-12-14T16:20:02.696-05:00Oilfield,
"... GDP no longer measures gains f...Oilfield,<br />"... GDP no longer measures gains from housing speculation (since we no longer measure what people pay for homes in CPI) ..."<br /><br />And<br /><br />"Even if you adjust it to Real GDP you still do not get it right since we use OER to calculate the deflator."<br /><br />Yeah so I can't avoid the problem by using the deflator I guess.<br /><br />This is one complicated mess & I'm having trouble getting a handle on it.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-76103837404603021422016-12-13T13:27:19.162-05:002016-12-13T13:27:19.162-05:00Art
"And "no additional debt" for...Art<br /><br /> "And "no additional debt" for almost all the time between the 1991 and 2001 recessions. As opposed to none of the time between the 2001 and 2009 recessions."<br /><br />Yes since GDP no longer measures gains from housing speculation (since we no longer measure what people pay for homes in CPI), private debt to GDP measurements will get really bad when home prices diverge from OER. Inflated HIP(Home Index Price) cost, larger about of debt to buy the home with less GDP contribution, higher percentage of Private debt to GDP. <br /><br />Even if you adjust it to Real GDP you still do not get it right since we use OER to calculate the deflator.<br /><br />You have to get really fancy and strip out the OER contribution to the deflator and proxy the effects of what a reasonable HPI has on the deflator. <br /><br />It looks like we have built in another housing bubble, I guess we will see. <br /><br />https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/11/23/fhfa-house-price-index-up-1-5-in-q3Oilfield Trashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151172995826850192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-29275008002283610822016-12-12T17:34:22.420-05:002016-12-12T17:34:22.420-05:00Yeah okay, O.T. That's making sense now. And &...Yeah okay, O.T. That's making sense now. And "no additional debt" for almost all the time between the 1991 and 2001 recessions. As opposed to <i>none</i> of the time between the 2001 and 2009 recessions.<br />The Arthurianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16501331051089400601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2098432983500045934.post-25899873729670076462016-12-12T09:44:25.413-05:002016-12-12T09:44:25.413-05:00Art
This is why the 90's were so good.
https...Art<br /><br />This is why the 90's were so good.<br /><br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=349227<br /><br />OER and HPI were on the same page. No additional debt to fund housing speculation. Oilfield Trashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151172995826850192noreply@blogger.com