Recovery

Excerpts from an Associated Press article of 15 April

CONFIDENCE:
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke ... has confidence the unfolding economic recovery will have staying power..."


When you don't know how to run an economy, talk about how confident you are. That way you've covered the "psychological factors" at least. And if nothing's wrong but psychological factors, then everything's cool. And since we have no idea what else could possibly be wrong, well, confidence is all we can muster.

THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE:
Bernanke ... called on lawmakers and the White House to come up with a plan to whittle down record high budget deficits.... A credible plan to pare the deficit could provide the economy with benefits....


It COULD provide the economy with benefits. Bernanke doesn't really know, but he's hopeful: A "credible" plan could help. If only they could come up with one.

They don't know what's wrong with the economy, and they don't know how to fix it.

THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE:
"Addressing the country's fiscal problems will require difficult choices, but postponing them will only make them more difficult," he warned.


How many times have you heard that? Can ya believe they still warn about "postponing" the fix? -- after all this time!

Okay, so we're the richest, wealthiest country in the world, or right near the top. So how come all the economic solutions call for sacrifice? If we're so rich why isn't it EASY to fix the economic problem?

The answer is: They don't know HOW to fix the problem. They don't know the easy answer. And nothing they've tried has worked. So they think it's a difficult fix.

It doesn't have to be difficult.

BERNANKE SEES THE FUTURE:

In fact, the odds of a "double dip" recession, where the economy would start shrinking again, have receded, Bernanke said.


Hope so.

THEY SAY THIS ALL THE TIME, AND IT IS WRONG:
... That assessment of consumers -- whose spending accounts for 70 percent of national economic activity -- also appeared more upbeat ...


Assuming the number is right, consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of GDP or 70 percent of output or 70 percent of income, but not 70 percent of national economic activity.

Economic activity is spending. National economic activity is spending in the nation, or spending by U.S. citizens, or something like that. National economic activity is an iceberg. Output is the tip of the iceberg.

Assuming their number is right, consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the tip of the "national economic activity" iceberg.

It matters.