Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Third Time's the Charm... Hopefully

So I make myself another copy of the first spreadsheet. I get rid of Sheet4, and Sheet3 and Sheet2. I keep Sheet1 and the Table. And I think about starting from the beginning.

Step 1: Delete the "TQ" year row from Sheet1. Now the year-numbers are consecutive, the "Gross Federal Debt as a Percent of GDP" numbers still correspond to the years, and the "Exponential Curve" column formulas each refer to the correct year-number. And the "break" is gone, in the graph of the exponential:

Just to be safe, I re-did the exponential calculation and checked that the graphs were using the numbers I wanted them to be using. Were good. And the exponential trend runs right through the center of the actual 1955-1973 numbers, as expected:

Next, as before, I wanted to calculate GHP, hypothetical output numbers with growth enough to keep the federal-debt-relative-to-output trend following the exponential downtrend. (That's on Sheet2.)

Next, on Sheet3 I compare actual GDP to the GHP numbers. Once again, the GHP numbers dwarf the GDP numbers:

But once again, GHP is never greater than GDP in the base period:

Okay, time out.

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