Friday, May 19, 2017

Cycles


A list of economic cycles:

Source: Wikipedia

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Off the top of my head, four cycles that didn't make the list:

   •  Short financial cycle (Borio) 16-20 years
   •  Long financial cycle (Greenspan) once-in-a-century
   •  Price waves (D.H. Fisher) 150-300 years, give or take
   •  Cycle of Civilization (Arthurian) 2000 years, give or take

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Wikipedia's list indicates a "technological basis" for the Kondratieff wave.  Note, however, that Kondratieff found his cycle in prices [and interest rates]. Also, the Juglar cycle is referenced to "fixed investment". But as Yoshihisa points out in the IWATA PDF, "Conventionally, “Juglar Cycle” is attributed to the investment cycle. But his logic is mainly credit and speculation." So at least two of the four cycles listed have a monetary or financial basis. Plus all four of the ones I added to the list.

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Eight cycles listed, total off the top of my head. Six of the eight are observed in or driven by or closely related to money or credit or finance. And that's just off the top of my head.

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