Saturday, October 29, 2011


After getting my ducks all in a row, or all in a column actually, I made a graph of the CPI-U numbers:

Graph #1

Not very inspiring. That's okay. The exercise is its own reward.

The point of the exercise, though, was to look at prices during the Great Depression. Going back a few days, I had quoted a Futurecast post:

The 8% price inflation that afflicted the Depression-ravaged economy through the first six months of 1937 after four years of New Deal monetary inflation occurred despite unemployment rates in excess of 14%.

And Jazz said


so naturally I had to look. But it's hard to see the Great Depression from here. So I looked at a smaller chunk of the CPI:

Graph #2

Starts out at 10. Was 100 sometime around 1983. Where is it now? Around 225 by the first graph. So prices went up ten-fold between 1913 and 1983, and have roughly doubled since. A little more than doubled.

Tenfold in 70 years. Doubled in say 23 years. For what that's worth.

23 once: doubled.
23 twice: Four-fold in 46 years.
23 three times: Eight-fold in 69 years, call it 70.

So we have done a little better since 1983, an eight-times increase as opposed to a ten-times increase in prices, based on ballpark numbers and 70-year trends.

Not really very good at all, is it?

Anyway, the Federal Reserve is gonna be 100 years old pretty soon, and I think you should be nice to it. I do. Yeah, they can do better, but only if they know how.

Meanwhile, the Great Depression. No no, not this one. The other one, 1929. Here's inflation for 1913-1945 again, this time show as a rate rather than a level: percent change from year-ago numbers:

Starts at 1914 actually, seeing the change from 1913.

Well, I don't see any 8% inflation rate in any month of the Great Depression. Five percent max, and that only briefly. Jazz was right.


nanute said...

What am I; chopped liver? lol

The Arthurian said...

Goo Bolly!! Dou be right!

The words "Jazz was right" had me so stressed I couldn't think :)

nanute said...

Maybe I should have added bullshit to my comment! LMAO

The Arthurian said...

I was gonna say that.

Jazzbumpa said...

The words "Jazz was right" had me so stressed I couldn't think :)

I'm flattered.

What amazes me is that anyone can put out something that is not just wrong, but so obviously wrong; and in such a way the wrongitude can so easily be demonstrated.

Are thee people THAT stupid, or do they think that WE are that stupid?

But you can find en example of this kind of activity coming from the right every day, if you keep your eyes open.