Sunday, December 21, 2014

Appears to flatten before onset of recession

Graph #1: PAYEMS divided by POP.  FRED # V3m
The uptrend goes flat before the 1980 recession, the 1982 recession, the 1991 recession (briefly, but twice!), the 2001 recession, and the 2009 recession.

Does that mean it will necessarily happen again, the next time? No.

But is it interesting? Yes.

Is the uptrend flattening now? No.

Is that interesting? Yes.

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