Monday, September 11, 2017

Does not contradict my prediction of booming RGDP

Capacity Utilization is going up again:

Graph #1
(Does contradict those who expect recession within the next two years.)

Imagine the improvement possible if Capacity Utilization were to rise from 75% to 85 or 90 percent. Look at the size of the increases after the 1970 and '74 recessions. Such things are possible. Such things were possible, I should say. For us, too much, too soon.

Okay, so look at the increase after the 1991 recession: five percentage points. That would get us to 80% and (for those whose memories go back as far as 2008) that would seem pretty good. But 80% is still low: Look at the graph. We should expect to approach 85%, as in the 1980s and '90s.

And, because recent patterns of debt and debt service are comparable to those of the 1990s, we should expect a sustained high in capacity utilization and in economic growth, as in the '90s. Maybe longer, as the fall of debt was deeper and people are more cautious now about adding to their debt.

This would be the perfect time for policymakers to create tax incentives designed to accelerate the repayment of private debt.

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