If you pray...

At The Great Recession, Peter Murray posts a graph of total U.S. debt relative to GDP. It's a version of the graph we've seen before. But Peter has labeled the high points.

I show this graph because it highlights the same high points that I used to stare at, looking for meaning. Eventually, I had a useful thought.

Notice how the two run-ups to peak are different? The recent peak, Peter's 360%, is fast, but it seems to be an accelerating trend. By contrast, the older peak is a sharp spike, quick up and quick down. A departure from the trend.

The older peak is a spike generated by the collapse of GDP during the Great Depression. We have not had anything like that yet, this time around.

The second graph is a duplicate of the first, but I added a red trend-line to make the spike stand out. I also added a black arrow, below my trend-line. The arrow points to a location comparable to where we are now, before the collapse.

I don't make predictions. I don't know that there will be a collapse. But I know that if there is one, total debt will spike to 600% of GDP, maybe more.