Friday, August 19, 2011

Increasing Minimums

Graph #1: Numbers unemployed

Blue: Number of Persons (16 years of age and older) unemployed.
Red: Civilians unemployed 27 weeks and over.

Skyrockets during recessions. Declines between recessions.

Low points on both (red & blue) are generally  higher in later years.

For unemployment, a "low point" is a good thing. A higher low point is a bad thing.

However, these trend-lines show "number of persons." Population is increasing, so you might expect to see the low points getting higher.

Good point.

Graph #2: Long-Term Unemployed as a Percent of All Unemployed
Graph #2 shows Long-Term unemployed as a percent of Number of Persons unemployed.

Skyrockets during recessions. Declines between recessions. And low points are higher in later years. (This time the observation is valid.)

Graph #3: Comparing Graph #2 to Capacity DisUtilization

Graph #3 shows the same blue trend-line as Graph #2, plus a version of Capacity Utilization.

The red line here is capacity disutilization. I subtracted FRED's capacity utilization number from full (96%) utilization. Why 96%? Because it puts the red trend-line close to the blue one.

The two trend lines both show higher low points in later years. Not a good thing.

1 comment:

Jazzbumpa said...

I had a look at capacity utilization and some other related data back in December.

Not pretty.