Tuesday, September 25, 2012

"wages and benefits were almost keeping up with inflation"


Looking at this mathematical deception graph...

Graph #1: Unit Labor Cost (blue) and the Implicit Price Deflator (red)
(Click graph for the FRED source page)

...Jerry said:

I think all this shows is that wages and benefits were almost keeping up with inflation.

How to tell? Put the two number series into one line!

Graph #2: Unit Labor Cost less GDP Deflator (Index 2005=100)

Almost.

Graph #1 shows two "index" series, both using 2005=100 so the lines cross at that point . I subtracted the red line from the blue -- I subtracted the price deflator from Unit Labor Cost, to see if wages and benefits were keeping up with inflation. Graph #2 shows the result.

Neck-and-neck until 1965.

Wages and benefits made gains during the Great Inflation (1965-1982).

Wages and benefits lost out to prices since the 1982 recession.

But that's based on the GDP Deflator. Maybe I should use the Consumer Price Index because we're looking at the wages and benefits of consumers.

I re-did Graph #1, this time showing Unit Labor Cost (blue) and the CPI (red). I tweaked the CPI so it has the value 100 in 2005 (same as ULC and the Deflator). And in green I added the "difference" line, like the one on Graph #2.

Graph #3: Comparing Unit Labor Cost and the CPI

(Added 100 to the green line, so that all three lines cross at 2005.)

The green line, the difference line, shows some slight gain for wages and benefits in the 1950s. It shows  wage and benefit gains during the Great Inflation, like Graph #2. And like Graph #2, wages and benefits lose out to prices since the 1982 recession.

"Almost keeping up" with inflation? Depends how you define "almost"!

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