Friday, September 20, 2013

Could've inspired Steve Waldman's Not a monetary phenomenon

Steve Waldman links to Kevin Erdmann of 6 September. That post links to Erdmann's earlier It's All Demographics, Again

Erdmann takes a population forecast for 2015-2060, projects labor force participation for that period by age and gender, and creates a labor force participation forecast through 2060. Then he combines this forecast with existing data and creates a graph showing more than 100 years overall. And he offers an insight that simply astounded me:

The most important thing to note here is that the current slope of the line basically tracks the slope we have seen since 2000. You don't need a disillusioned labor force that's given up in order to explain this decline.

I'm trying to say enough to get you interested, but not so much that you don't need to read Erdmann's post. I've probably not done it justice. Go read Kevin Erdmann's post for yourself, if you missed it.

No comments: