Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Again, the "natural" rate of output

Which part of this graph would you say shows "natural" output?

GDP Growth Over the Very Long Run
Max Roser (2014) – ‘GDP Growth Over the Very Long Run’. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: http://ourworldindata.org/data/growth-and-distribution-of-prosperity/gdp-growth-over-the-very-long-run/ [Online Resource]

Before you answer let me say I think there must have been a similar peak in the time of ancient Rome. Smaller than ours, but no less temporary. And probably others.

When a peak rises like that, it's not "natural". It's the result of economic management, coddling, encouragement, and stuff like that. And finance. Not only technology. Probably not primarily technology.

Maybe it's all natural, the extended low, the rise to peak, and the fall back. But then, the rise and fall is only a momentary blip on the screen.

Here's another look, with some old MeasuringWorth data that's no longer available:

Graph #2
This graph only goes back to 1688. The first graph goes back to year one.


The graph of MeasuringWorth data is from 2010 maybe or 2011. It's a Google Docs spreadsheet graph, I recognize it. So I searched my old Google Docs files and found it. Exported it to XLS format, added some current UK GDP data for comparison -- the new and old datasets differ! -- and provided a link to the older data that MeasuringWorth no longer provides.

Might not be worth anything: The current dataset begins with 1820. The old dataset contains only five values before that date: 1300, 1688, 1759, 1801, and 1811.

Huh. I wonder why they didn't have a number for 1086. From the Domesday book.

1 comment:

Jazzbumpa said...

In a closed system, an exponential trend must eventually fail.

This is why we must reach the stars.