Sunday, February 7, 2016
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Challenging the Premisses
Start with the debt problem, three views of it,
and the most important thing. Here's a longer look at the debt problem.
Here's a short one on economic policy, some surprising trends, and a few unusual policy recommendations. How'd we get into this mess? Read Policy Venn and Policies of the Venn Overlap. Still with me? Read A Matter of Life and Death. And for an overview, download my 12-page PDF |
3 comments:
No actually it is nothing at all like 2006.
I suspect that if the Quicken app had been around in 2006 it would have helped prevent asome of the stupid mortgages by simply exposing their stupidity.
In 2005 and 2006 Private investors financed more than $2.5 trillion in US residential mortgages. For a lot of those mortgages, the borrowers and lenders were counting on the profits from appreciation of the property to supply the income to payback the loan and without that income from appreciation those mortgages were not viable.
Today the amount of home mortgages financed by private investors is close to zero and so is the number of borrowers counting on the appreciation of the collateral to supply the income to payback a mortgage.
The quicken app is not going to convert the reality of today into the reality of 2006. If anything it will help prevent that delusional thinking of 2006 from returning.
Push button, get mortgage.
Hussman, June 2018:
'The expansion of junk and near-junk credit has again extended to commercial mortgage bonds, where interest-only loans now account for over 75% of the underlying debt. Bloomberg notes that “as investors have flocked to debt investments that seem safe, underwriters have been emboldened to make the instruments riskier and keep yields relatively high by removing or watering down protections.”'
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