I expect Debt Service soon to climb from its current low level, bringing vigor to the U.S. economy just as it did in the mid-1980s and then again in the latter 1990s. I keep an eye on debt service.
I noticed that the most recent debt service data at FRED looks different from the previous "vintages" of that data. So I went to ALFRED and put the five most recent vintages together on a graph:
|Graph #1: This Story Has Two Different Endings|
Here is a close-up view of the last few years:
|Graph #2: The Five Most Recent Vintages of Household Debt Service Data|
For all the earlier versions, it appears that only the last value from the last time was changed. But the most recent version changes everything, all the way back to 2013.
How does this change affect the likely future path of debt service? What do the Excel trendlines show?
|Graph #3: Polynomial Trends based on 2013 Q1 thru Last Available Data|
These polynomial trendlines, as I read them, predict growth and vigor for our economy. Growth and vigor, beginning soon. But the polynomial is not the only type of trendline Excel offers. The other types all show continuing sluggishness:
|Graph #4: Not All the Predictions Are Optimistic.|
I stand by my prediction: Growth and vigor, becoming obvious in 2018.
// The Excel file