Monday, November 6, 2017

A psalm of balance


The use of credit gives the economy a boost, but also creates debt which eventually undermines the "boost" effect.

Policymakers are well aware that the use of credit boosts the economy. They create all sorts of policies to encourage the use of credit: deductible interest expense, financial deregulation, low interest rates and quantitative easing, for example.

Except in times of crisis, these policies cause the use of credit to grow at an accelerated rate. Therefore, debt ordinarily grows at an accelerated rate.

We have no policy designed to accelerate the repayment of debt. Therefore, debt grows at an accelerated rate until it accumulates enough to create a crisis.

If we insist on having policies that encourage the use of credit, then we must also have policies that accelerate the repayment of private debt.

3 comments:

Oilfield Trash said...

Art

Due to the lending transaction, there is an illiquid asset on the bank's balance sheet that wasn't there before, and an equivalent amount of new money in the customer's demand deposit account.

For commercial banks, it is their entire purpose. If they didn't do this liquidity transformation, they would not be banks.

The problem the debt their customers owe to them as a consequence of lending is long-term and illiquid.

Are you suggesting that government create policy to shorten the term of lending and enhance the liquidity of the bank’s assets?

Sort of like no loan over 15 years and 20% down for a home mortgage?

The Arthurian said...


OT: "Are you suggesting that government create policy to shorten the term of lending and enhance the liquidity of the bank’s assets?"

I am suggesting that the problem becomes more severe as the accumulation of debt increases relative to GDP (or relative to circulating money). And that if accumulated debt is maintained at a relatively low level, the problem will not arise.

I am suggesting that accumulated debt rose to such a high level because borrowing increased more rapidly than repayment of debt; and that borrowing increased more rapidly than repayment because policy encourages borrowing and discourages the repayment of debt.

And I am suggesting that when accumulated debt remains at a relatively low level, the term of lending and the liquidity of assets are not insurmountable problems and do not create financial crises.

jim said...

OT wrote:

"The problem the debt their customers owe to them as a consequence of lending is long-term and illiquid."

That hasn't been a problem in the last 80 years and its not likely to become a problem in the next 80.

For the last 25 years commercial bank credit has been around 12%-13% of the total credit market debt outstanding.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=fEbf

If credit to govt is excluded commercial bank credit to the private sector is probably closer to 10% of the total. During the financial crisis it was the other 90% where liquidity problems arose. Even holders of federal securities had greater
problems with liquidity than holders of bank deposits in the early days of the crisis.