Where we stand

In March of last year I said We are at the bottom now, ready to go up.  I said:

This is going to be the full tilt, rapid output growth, rapid productivity growth, high performance boom.

We're still waiting. I know. But it's still mid-2017. That puts us just about midway between the start of 2016 and the start of 2019. I marked the current moment on this graph:

Graph #1: Markup of Graph #4 from mine of  3 March 2016

The prediction on the graph runs flat till just about now, and then begins the vigor.

Now consider this FRED graph, modified from a FREDBlog post:

Graph #2: Three Measures of RGDP Growth, March 2016 to August 2017

I modified the FRED Blog graph so it starts in March 2016 and ends at the current moment, August 2017. At the start, all three lines are midrange, between 1.5% and 2.0% growth. Then, for most of the graph, the lines contradict each other. But so far this year, the three lines are coming together and moving higher. It is a hint of better economic growth to come.

The FRED graph is compatible with my prediction. Can't see it? That's because I'm telling you early. If I waited until it was obvious, it wouldn't be a prediction.


Two of the three lines are running off the top of the plot window, and the third is headed in that direction. It's not exactly a consensus, but it is an indication. Note also that the top edge of the plot window shows a growth rate of 3.5%.

I'd like to remind Menzie Chinn that Trump was talking about 3.5% to 4% growth.

It won't be long. DJT will be telling us he has succeeded in making America "great again" because we got good growth. Don't believe it. We were going to get good growth anyway.