Monday, January 15, 2018

US Population back to 1929

POP, FRED's number for Total US Population, only goes back to 1952. But FRED does show both Real disposable personal income and Real Disposable Personal Income: Per Capita, annual data, going back to 1929.

Divide the one by the other. Multiply by a million to make the units match POP. Now you've got US Population all the way back to 1929:

Graph #1: US Population back to 1952 (red) and back to 1929 (blue)
It's not perfect. Usually on "comparison" graphs like this, the red line is centered on the blue. In this case, the bottom edges of the lines are aligned. FRED's POP number is ever so slightly less than my number. Rounding, maybe. But hey, it's close enough for me. For now.

Show it as "percent change from year ago" values, and there is the baby boom! Wow:

Graph #2: Growth Rate of US Population since 1930; Baby Boom highlighted
The growth of RGDP relative to RGDP per Capita shows a similar pattern, but only starts between Batman's ears. You don't get the full effect.


Jerry said...

Jake says: "That's ridiculous."
I see all those lego movies are growing on you!

Jerry said...

What about (POPH)?

The Arthurian said...

Some people will go to any length to get readers!

Hey, how did you find POPH ?

Pretty good, it goes all the way back to 1900. "Percent Change from Year Ago" shows 2% annual growth with a WWI blip, then a fall from 2% beginning ABOUT FIVE YEARS BEFORE THE GREAT DEPRESSION (so the economy was already no good in the mid-20s), a recovery encouraged by WWII, and a decline in the 1960s.

The return to 2% growth is the "baby boom". But it wasn't the baby boom that was different. It was the Depression related (1924 to 1947) slump that was different. The "Baby Slump".

Jerry said...

hmm. Harder than I thought. I thought I just searched fred for "population" or "us population", but that doesn't seem to find it.
(probably it's on there somewhere, but just not on the first page? Need a second search bar to search through the search results...)

Looking in my browser history -- I searched google for a misspelled version:

The top link there (for me, anyway -- maybe some variation if it personalizes peoples' results?) was:

Then I scrolled down looking for the earliest start, which was "National Population (POPH)" just a bit down the page.

It's the same thing at work, where I can spend an hour looking on our website for documentation and not find it. Or I can use google to search for it, basically mash my hands on the keyboard and misspell it horribly, and it will somehow guess what I mean and find it immediately.