Saturday, September 17, 2011

Schumpeter or somebody

Schumpeter or somebody talked about how a Great Depression might be the chance result of a combination of business cycles (cycles of various length) that happen to reach low points at the same time. (I don't remember where I read this.)

I think sound waves work the same way. With computers, they can create silence by having the computer invert the sound waves it hears, and rebroadcast them. The original waves and the inverted waves combine to produce an amazing result.

In jim's graph (see previous post) there could be a business cycle producing the somewhat regular peaks that make the graph so interesting, overlaid on a general upward trend that could be exponential. The waves combine and produce a striking result.

Waves combine all the time. How could they not?

Liminal Hack sees an exponential trend in my three graphs from yesterday, as do I. Jazzbumpa seems not to see it. But that's not it; he does see it, in a later comment.

Liminal and I are focused on the longer wave. Jazz is focused on the shorter one(s). He points out that the data path acknowledges recessions, for example. And it does.

These different focuses add something to the discussion, but sometimes subtract from the understanding of it.

Nobody is wrong here. But it becomes a matter of prioritization. For me, the overall trend is *up* until the thing breaks and we get a Depression. For me, the longer wave is the critical one today.

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