On the 27th I took a scatterplot -- the private-debt-to-public-debt (P2P) ratio versus inflation-adjusted GDP growth -- and tweaked the hell out of it. Ended up with the data not chronological but sorted on the P2P values, with both the x and y values expressed as moving averages of the sorted data, and with a series of short trendlines describing the path of the scatterplot trend.
That was fun to do. But the conclusion I came to, after all the fun, was
Not sure about sorting the values.
Not much of a conclusion, is it? I want to go back and get sure about sorting the values. How would it look if I put the data back in chronological order? That was my question.
Here is the last graph from the 27th:
|Graph #1: 8Q subsets with 6Q Overlap, Data Sorted on X Values|
When I put the data back in chronological order, the ratio values tend to get higher over time but there is some backtracking along the way. And a lot of the ratio values fall between 3½ and 5, so that we end up with a lot of dots and a lot of black trendline in that part of the graph:
|Graph #2: 8Q subsets with 6Q Overlap, Data in Chronological Order|
Quite a difference, too, from my scatterplot of the unmolested data:
|Graph #3: Unsorted Data, No Moving Averages, One Overall Trendline|