Saturday, April 30, 2016

Looking for weakness

Trump? Cruz? Clinton? Sanders? Whose boom will it be? No one will credit Obama, surely.

I marked up a graph of commercial loans:

Graph #1

Last time, the increase started around mid-2003. There was that awful low there just around 2006, related to the housing slump. And there were a couple feeble attempts at increase, indicated by my black arrows.

This time, the increase started in early 2010. It is a steeper climb, faster increase. There are no awful lows, and no feeble attempts at increase. No signs of trouble. I don't see recession in the cards.


Making predictions makes me nervous, so I have to say "this isn't investment advice".

Also, yeah, I'm the guy who says we have too much debt already, yeah. But as long as we base economic policy on the idea that "using credit is good for growth", increased lending is a sign growth is improving.

Increased lending doesn't solve the too-much-debt problem. To solve that problem we have to change the idea that guides economic policy.

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