Saturday, June 25, 2016

David and Goliath


Oh, for crying out loud. Nothing is going to happen any time soon.

Here -- I put this up once before:
Article 50 of the Consolidated Treaty on European Union:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Here are three points made by Article 50:

--> The EU shall set out the arrangements for a member state's withdrawal

--> The withdrawal agreement shall be negotiated by the Council, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. In other words, if the Parliament does not consent, there can be no withdrawal agreement and evidently no withdrawal.

--> "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question" -- that is, the withdrawing state is no longer a member of the EU -- as soon as the withdrawal agreement takes effect, or, "failing that", two years after the state notifies the union of its intent to withdraw, unless the European Council decides to extend this period.

 
Nothing's going to happen any time soon. Maybe never. It evidently depends on the European Parliament. Athens didn't let member states quit the Delian League. Lincoln didn't let member states quit the United States. And I question the European Parliament's willingness to allow Great Britain to leave the EU. It would be a sign of weakness, after all, and it puts the Euro at risk.


Congratulations to the people of a great nation for doing a great thing.

All the best.

1 comment:

The Arthurian said...

If you want a strong superstate, you need the superstate's money to hold its value. It's very simple really.