Here's a close-up of that last graph from yesterday.
|Graph #1: Household Debt (blue)and Trends since 2010 (dotted) and 2013 (black)|
Just to be clear, the dotted line uses all the data that the solid black line uses, plus some earlier data. And the dotted line goes up faster.
In the years of prediction, after the green line ends, the dotted line goes up faster than the solid. The trend based on 2010-2016 goes up faster than the trend based on 2013-2016. It looks to me like the change was more rapid in the early years, less rapid in the later years. There was more vigor in the 2010-2013 decline than in the 2013-2016 increase.
It looks to me also that the increase in household debt is not as rapid as the decline in household debt service suggests:
|Graph #7: Household Debt Service and the 2014-2015 Trend|
I do still think people are tired of this tired economy. People are ready for a better economy. And once people feel better about things, after the election maybe, household borrowing and economic vigor will rise.
// the Excel file