A little worried now about vigor. I've been shouting "vigor" since March. This is September. I didn't expect vigor by now, no. But I got worried when I looked at the two trend lines on yesterday's graph. It looks like things are getting slower. Less vigorous.
Yeah, maybe I was expecting vigor by now, yesterday. What was I thinking??
So I thought I'd take a look at what happened in the 1990s when there was a similar "bowl shape" in the household debt service data.
This is Household Debt Service (TDSP at FRED) from 1990 thru 1996:
|Graph #1: The Bowl-Shape in Household Debt Service, 1991-1995|
Now I'll take the red part and the green part and put trend lines on them. I'm making the trendline for the red line dashed-red and the one for the green line dashed-green. Both are second order polynomial trend lines, which make a nice bowl shape.
|Graph #2: Trend Lines Added|
So I'm not gonna worry about our bowl. We should start seeing it pretty soon, the right side curving up. If it doesn't come today I don't have to lose any sleep over it.
// the Excel file