Saturday, December 3, 2011

Maybe something will turn up.

Graph #1 (Graph #2 from yesterday's post)

The secondary peak in the interest rate lines up with the 1933 peak in the DPD.

In our time, interest rates are still falling. We have not got to the secondary peak yet. There will be real troubles when we do.

On the other hand, our debt has already peaked and is coming down. At the same stage last time (post-1933) the secondary peak was already behind us. Guaranteed: This difference is due to Fed policy since the crisis.

Whether we can sustain the low rates until debt has fallen to reasonable levels is another question entirely.

What am I, a philosopher now?

One other observation: The "indigo" band, the 1990-1993 drop in DPD, seems to be accompanied by attenuation of the minor peak in interest rates. Say again: The longwave decline of interest rates (since 1981) displays a pattern of smaller peaks and valleys which correspond to the business cycle. It looks like there should have been one of those smaller peaks sometime in the 1990-93 period, but there was not.

I think the decline of DPD is the reason we missed that smaller peak.

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