Thursday, December 1, 2011

Playing the Numbers

My father's birthday, today. Happy birthday, Dad.

Turns out, the "GS10" identification used for Robert Shiller's interest rate data is a FRED identification. Graph #1 shows monthly and annual patterns of FRED's GS10:

Graph #1: FRED GS10 Interest, Monthly (blue) & Annual (red)

I took the Shiller interest-rate numbers and condensed them to the January values only, for all the years in the Shiller file. Then I took annual values from the FRED GS10 as well. I combined the FRED numbers with Shiller's on the same graph. Graph #2 shows these together, since 1950:

Graph #2: Shiller Januaries (blue) & FRED GS10 Annual (red)

It's a toss-up. I guess you could even argue that Shiller's annual numbers (blue on Graph #2) look more like FRED's monthly values (blue on Graph #1) than FRED's annuals do.

I'll use the Shiller January numbers for the DPD comparison.


Jazzbumpa said...

Hey - your dad'a a week older than I am.


The Arthurian said...

Hey, happy birthday Jazz. A week and N years, I presume.