Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Sequence of Events

Prices in general (red) were going up faster than the price of crude oil (blue) from 1959 to 1974. In 1974, oil jumped way up.

Graph #1: Crude Oil (blue) and Consumer Prices (red)
The crude oil price data only starts in 1959, so that's where I started the graph. [Apparently that's not correct. The graph starts in 1959 because it does. Edit 22 Feb 2017 ArtS]

I indexed both datasets to make them equal at the start. Whatever line is higher, that's the one that went up more. The CPI went up more than the price of crude until 1974.

Before 1974, the price of crude was lagging behind. It makes you wonder: Why the sudden change in '74? Why such a big change?

I added the price of gold to the graph (in green). The data for gold starts in April, 1968. So I eliminated everything before that date, and indexed all three to make them equal at the start:

Graph #2: Crude (blue), Consumer Prices (red) and the Price of Gold (green)
In early 1972 (not long after Nixon closed the gold window) the price of gold started going up a lot faster than prices in general.

The increase of crude oil prices in 1974 was just about enough to keep crude prices on a par with the price of gold.

You know... This confirms something I heard on the news once -- only once -- many years back: OPEC (or whoever) said they were raising prices to keep up with gold. Because of the falling value of the dollar.

1 comment:

The Arthurian said...

In response to my Q: "Are you saying that the spike in oil prices was the result of going off gold?", Greg says Yes.... partially.