Saturday, January 7, 2017

My recession indicator says "not yet"

Employment Growth


The Arthurian said...

Edward Harrison, 2 November 2017: First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

Harrison shows a graph of "change from year ago, thousands of persons" for "All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls" and says:

"The only note of caution I would provide here is that the increase in non-farm payrolls is declining as the labor market tightens and that is consistent with an end of cycle dynamic."

It's not only *my* recession indicator, apparently.

The Arthurian said...

Robert T. McGee in Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy:
"As a mix of cyclical and less cyclical jobs, overall employment is one of the best trackers of whether GDP is growing or not."

I look at the first derivative of overall employment.