Wednesday, January 18, 2017

So no recession yet.

Graph #1: The Declining Productivity of Capital
First impression: Looks like we are at the high point of this business cycle. But the curve has to actually turn downward and go downhill before we get a recession. So, no recession yet.

First time I ever saw this graph. Maybe it doesn't work that way. But that's how it looks, based on the data since the mid-80s.

FRED says "Capital services are the services derived from the stock of physical assets and intellectual property assets."

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