Saturday, January 7, 2017

My recession indicator says "not yet"


Employment Growth
Posted by The Arthurian at 4:00 AM
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3 comments:

The Arthurian said...


Edward Harrison, 2 November 2017: First piece of data that tells you the US economy is humming

Harrison shows a graph of "change from year ago, thousands of persons" for "All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls" and says:

"The only note of caution I would provide here is that the increase in non-farm payrolls is declining as the labor market tightens and that is consistent with an end of cycle dynamic."

It's not only *my* recession indicator, apparently.

February 5, 2018 at 6:18 PM
The Arthurian said...


Robert T. McGee in Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy:
"As a mix of cyclical and less cyclical jobs, overall employment is one of the best trackers of whether GDP is growing or not."

I look at the first derivative of overall employment.

October 14, 2018 at 6:01 AM
The Arthurian said...

At Liberty Street Economics, 12 Feb 2020: Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two:

"In our previous post, we presented evidence suggesting that labor market indicators provide the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle. In this post, we further develop the case. In fact, the unemployment rate has provided an almost perfect record of distinguishing the beginning of recessions in the post-war U.S. economy."

February 12, 2020 at 8:56 AM

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