Friday, August 12, 2016

Bill McBride: "I don't expect a downturn for employment any time soon"

Bill McBride:
This graph [at Calculated Risk] shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. Since exceeding the pre-recession peak in May 2014, employment is now 4.3% above the previous peak.

Note: I ended the lines for most previous recessions when employment reached a new peak, although I continued the 2001 recession too on this graph. The downturn at the end of the 2001 recession is the beginning of the 2007 recession. I don't expect a downturn for employment any time soon (unlike in 2007 when I was forecasting a recession).

Bill McBride's graph says no downturn. Sounds good.

1 comment:

The Arthurian said...

Reuters 11 August 2016:
"U.S. labor market firming; inflation remains benign
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength in early August that could help spur faster economic growth...
In a separate report, the Labor Department said import prices edged up 0.1 percent last month..."