Showing Hodrick-Prescott curves for Household Debt Service and Real GDP Growth:
1980-83: A low level of debt service (blue) allows rapid increase in RGDP growth.
1984-86: Rising debt service hinders growth. The red line peaks and turns downward.
1986-89: Reduced growth and reduced borrowing allow debt service to fall.
1990-93: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line bottoms and turns upward.
1994-97: Rising growth leads to increasing debt service.
1997-99: Rising debt service hinders growth. The red line peaks and turns downward.
2000-06: Reduced growth and increased borrowing keep debt service rising.
2006-08: Reduced growth and reduced borrowing allow debt service to fall.
2008-10: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line bottoms and turns upward.
2010-13: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line rises.
2013-16: The fall in debt service slows. The increase in growth also slows.
1984-86: Rising debt service hinders growth. The red line peaks and turns downward.
1986-89: Reduced growth and reduced borrowing allow debt service to fall.
1990-93: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line bottoms and turns upward.
1994-97: Rising growth leads to increasing debt service.
1997-99: Rising debt service hinders growth. The red line peaks and turns downward.
2000-06: Reduced growth and increased borrowing keep debt service rising.
2006-08: Reduced growth and reduced borrowing allow debt service to fall.
2008-10: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line bottoms and turns upward.
2010-13: Falling debt service encourages growth. The red line rises.
2013-16: The fall in debt service slows. The increase in growth also slows.
Easier to follow if you print out the page and mark it up.
// The Excel file (contains VBA code)
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