The red line is productivity, shown as percent change from year ago.
|Graph #1: Household Debt & Debt Service (blue) and Productivity (red)|
The two lines don't always match, mostly because of the big spike in productivity that we typically get after recessions. But set those spikes aside, and the lines do at least hint at similarity.
The red oval mid-graph highlights productivity and debt conditions during the "Goldilocks years".
The red oval on the right shows debt conditions even lower now than during 1993-1995, so there is plenty of room for things to go up.
Productivity has been low since 2011, as the graph shows. But productivity was also low after debt conditions bottomed out in the early 1990s, just before the Goldilocks years.
Productivity is going to pick up soon.