After a decline in the Debt-per-Dollar (DPD) ratio, the economy is vigorous.
I was looking at this graph back in the 1980s:
|The Debt-per-Dollar Ratio, 1916-1970|
There are not a lot of big changes on this graph. There are two: One downturn, and one upturn. To me the fewness of big changes is evidence that the ratio is an important one. And the timing of the changes -- the relation to the Great Depression and to the Golden Age -- is profound evidence of its importance.
|The Debt-per-Dollar Ratio since 1970|
In the early 1990s there is a smaller downturn, which was followed by the "Goldilocks economy" of the 1990s. Vigor in the 1990s.
If you need more, you can find the same pattern in "debt service" data:
|Household Debt Service|